The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out. The charts are “Crude Only” production and do not reflect condensate production.
All data is in thousand barrels per day.
OPEC production was up 15,000 barrels per day in March. But there has really been very little change since June of 2015.
OPEC uses secondary sources such as Platts and other agencies to report its production numbers. These numbers are pretty accurate and usually have only slight revisions month to month. The big gainer in March was Iran while the biggest loser was the UAE. Notice that the UAE says its production recovered in March, from its big drop in February. But OPEC’s “Secondary Sources” says it did not, it fell another 100,000 barrels per day.
INDONESIA – Indonesia has shown an increase in recent months but its oil rig count has dropped from 35 in December 2014 to 10 today. That does not bode well for its future oil production.
IRAN – Sanctions were just lifted, in the middle of January, on Iran. Its production was up 208,000 barrels per day in February and another 139,000 bpd in March. However, Iran could be the only OPEC nation with any significant production increase in 2016. Most other OPEC countries will, I believe, be flat to down slightly.
IRAQ – Iraq, after first going over 4 million barrels per day in June 2015, has struggled to hole that level. Iraq still depends on foreign investment to increase production and that seems to be drying up.
KUWAIT – Kuwait has increased production slightly in the last three months and it will take a huge hit in April due to the strike.
LIBYA – Libya is struggling. Its political problems are getting worse, not better.
SAUDI ARABIA – Saudi is producing every barrel it possibly can. It will be lucky to hold this level for much longer.
QATAR – Qatar has lots of natural gas, but its oil production has clearly peaked and is now in decline. Its production was unchanged in March.
UAE – No idea what is going on in the UAE. After peaking in January, it has since dropped 227,000 barrels per day.
VENEZUELA – Not much can be said about Venezuela. Its conventional oil is in decline but its bitumen production is keeping production relatively flat. But its political and economic problems are getting worse.
According to OPEC, world oil production peaked in November of 2015. This downward trend can continue for at least the next two years.
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